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2026. 5. 12.보고서미국

Report Reaction | Wheat futures surge after USDA pegs production well below trade expectations - Pro Farmer

USDA pegged 2026-27 US all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, well below the trade expectation of 1.747 billion and down from 1.985 billion last year. HRW, SRW and white winter output all came in under expectations.

Wheat futures surged on the report.

중요한 이유

A crop far below expectations and the smallest since 1972 tightens US wheat stocks and lifts wheat prices, pushing up wheat feed alternatives. The report also lowered corn and soy ending stocks.

영향 대상밀 (SRW)▲대두▲옥수수▲밀 (HRW)▲

출처 2건
dcamarketintelligence.comJohn Ramaker2026. 5. 13.
profarmer.comPro Farmer Editors2026. 5. 12.

가격 반응 및 이력

밀 (SRW)▲상승현재까지1d +1.2%5d +2.0%20d -3.2%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 769건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

2023. 5. 12.Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring-1.1%
2026. 7. 14.Historic Wheat Production Decline, Tighter Corn Supplies Highlight USDA's July WASDE Report - ProAg+4.5%
2022. 5. 12.Corn, Soybean Production Numbers as Expected in May USDA Report+5.9%
2022. 9. 30.Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report+0.4%
2022. 10. 6.USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-14.4%

대두▲상승현재까지1d +1.1%5d +1.1%20d -7.2%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 747건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.3% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.1%), 20거래일 동안 +0.8%.

2025. 5. 12.Report Snapshot | Corn, soybean ending stocks well below expectations - Pro Farmer+0.6%
2022. 10. 5.Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Far Below USDA Expectations - AgWeb-0.5%
2022. 6. 30.Soybeans rebound after USDA pegs U.S. acres below expectations | Financial Post-5.0%
2022. 4. 8.PF Report Reaction: U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks higher than expected - Pro Farmer+2.2%
2023. 8. 25.Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Below USDA Expectations - Farm Journal-0.4%

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d +0.8%5d +1.8%20d -7.2%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 1,040건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 62%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.9%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 +0.8%.

2025. 5. 12.Report Snapshot | Corn, soybean ending stocks well below expectations - Pro Farmer+0.0%
2022. 10. 5.Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Far Below USDA Expectations - AgWeb+0.9%
2023. 8. 25.Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Below USDA Expectations - Farm Journal-2.2%
2022. 8. 26.Pro Farmer Crop Estimates Far Below USDA Expectations - Farm Journal+0.5%
2025. 4. 10.USDA Report Reaction | USDA cuts corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer+3.1%

밀 (HRW)▲상승현재까지1d +7.0%5d +4.5%20d -6.3%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 180건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.1%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 -0.6%.

2023. 5. 12.Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring-3.9%
2025. 1. 10.Annual Crop Production Summary & Winter Wheat Seeding Reports Published by USDA - Oklahoma Farm Report-0.4%
2026. 5. 19.USDA May Reports Jolt Winter Wheat Markets Amid Production Deficits and Volatility - Oklahoma Farm Report-3.9%
2022. 9. 30.Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report-0.2%
2022. 10. 6.USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-2.0%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

밀 (SRW)+3.2%1개 기간 · 2026. 5. 11.까지3.6σ
All-wheat production of 1.561 bbu versus 1.747 bbu expected was a large bearish-to-bullish surprise that lifted wheat futures sharply.
밀 (HRW)+7.0%1개 기간 · 2026. 5. 11.까지3.5σ
USDA's all-wheat production estimate of 1.561 bn bu was well below the 1.747 bn trade expectation, so the bullish surprise drove the futures surge.

밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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