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Oil prices fell below $100/bbl after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Brent dropped as much as 16% to near $94, and WTI posted its steepest drop in almost six years.
European diesel futures fell as much as 23%, with the API reporting a larger-than-expected US crude build.
The ceasefire eases fears of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, reducing crude and diesel price support and lowering energy input costs for feed production, transport and fertilizer. Prices will depend on whether talks produce a durable deal and normal strait flows.
think.ing.comEwa Manthey, Warren Patterson2026. 4. 8.과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -3.1% 변동(상승 36%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.9%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 -5.5%.
과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 255건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.4% 변동(상승 31%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.0%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -5.0%.
과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 51건 이후, ULSD / 디젤은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.4% 변동(상승 37%; 중간 50% 범위 -8.2%~+3.9%), 20거래일 동안 -2.3%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
US-Iran two-week ceasefire sent oil below $100 and European diesel futures down as much as 23%, directly driving the ULSD collapse on April 8.
European diesel futures fell as much as 23% and oil slumped below $100 on the ceasefire, directly transmitting to ULSD benchmarks.
