◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2026. 4. 30.지정학Asia

From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply

Rice supply is expected to fall this year as Asian farmers cut acreage due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs from the Iran war. An emerging El Niño is also expected to squeeze output in top exporters and importers.

중요한 이유

Expected output declines in major exporters like Thailand and Vietnam tighten global rice supply and can lift prices. Rice price moves have limited direct effect on feed formulation.

영향 대상옥수수▲조곡(벼)▲요소▲

출처 2건
japantimes.co.jpNaveen Thukral, Panarat Thepgumpanat2026. 5. 1.
thestar.com.myNaveen Thukral, Panarat Thepgumpanat2026. 4. 30.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d -0.2%5d -1.6%20d -0.5%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 3. 5.How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%
2022. 2. 24.Ukraine Invasion Threatens Global Wheat Supply+6.5%
2026. 6. 19.Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
2023. 1. 12.Corn prices to stay elevated as global supplies ‘remain tight’+2.2%
2022. 6. 3.Feed the world: supply strains from the war in Ukraine - Hatchery InternationalHatchery International+5.5%

조곡(벼)▲상승현재까지1d +2.5%5d +12.1%20d +22.7%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 12건 이후, 조곡(벼)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.6% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.5%~+6.8%), 20거래일 동안 +5.4%.

2026. 5. 1.Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why+8.1%
2026. 5. 1.It's not just oil: Why Iran war also threatens Asia's food security+8.1%
2026. 9. 25.What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?-0.3%
2022. 3. 25.The feed factor: Global maize shortage could affect local rice market | The Business Standard-0.0%
2018. 4. 23.Egypt's rice farmers see rough times downstream of new Nile mega-dam-1.4%

요소▲상승현재까지1d -0.4%5d -10.0%20d -17.6%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 205건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.1%~+3.0%), 20거래일 동안 -0.4%.

2026. 3. 5.How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%
2020. 6. 6.From the Persian Gulf to the granaries of Lithuania: the war in Iran threatens a price shock for food and fertiliser - Agrobitė+1.3%
2025. 6. 20.Israel-Iran conflict leads to urea supply woes; global fob values rally by 25-30%+2.1%
2026. 3. 5.Farmers see fertiliser price surge as Iran war blocks exports, threatening losses | Reuters+3.0%
2026. 4. 1.The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production+10.6%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

조곡(벼)+12.1%5개 기간 · 2026. 5. 6.까지3.5σ
Expected lower global rice supply from reduced Asian acreage (fertilizer, fuel costs from Iran war) and El Niño raised supply-risk premium in the days leading to the move.
조곡(벼)+11.2%5개 기간 · 2026. 5. 4.까지3.8σ
Reports of Asian acreage cuts from fertilizer and fuel costs plus El Niño risk point to tighter supply, which supports a rally in rice futures.
조곡(벼)+4.6%1개 기간 · 2026. 5. 3.까지3.1σ
The 2026-04-30 report of expected lower global rice supply from acreage cuts and El Niño adds to supply-risk sentiment just before the move.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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조곡(벼) RICE · GP ▸

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