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China is banning phosphate exports through 2022, according to Michigan Farm News. Urea, DAP, MAP and potash averaged $572, $702, $776 and $598 per ton, all up 59% or more from 2020.
An industry agronomist said the move would hit growers and noted that China last cut supply this sharply in 2008.
China is the top phosphate exporter, so a ban tightens global DAP and MAP supply and pushes fertilizer costs up for feed grain producers.
michfb.com2021/09/29
michiganfarmnews.comMitch Galloway, Farm News Media2021/09/28過去の傾向を示すのに十分な類似イベントがまだありません。
過去の強気な政策イベント151件の後、DAP は5営業日で中央値 +0.0% 動き（50% が上昇。中央50%は -0.6% から +0.9%）、20営業日では +1.9% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
Report on 28 Sep that China is halting phosphate exports through 2022 is a direct supply shock to the largest exporter, which would push DAP prices up just before the 30 Sep move.
The reported China phosphate export ban through 2022 and already elevated DAP prices likely fed the market's repricing a few days before the move, so it is a contributing but earlier catalyst.
