Oil gains on supply concerns as wildfires disrupt Canada supply, OPEC+ keeps output plans unchanged

過去の強気な天候イベント40件の後、原油(WTI) は5営業日で中央値 +1.6% 動き（63% が上昇。中央50%は -3.7% から +5.3%）、20営業日では +6.1% 動きました。

• 2020/08/23Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+1.5%
• 2020/09/15Oil jumps nearly 3% as Gulf Coast storm forces output cuts+5.5%
• 2026/01/16Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus+2.8%
• 2022/12/23Storm cuts U.S. oil, gas, power output, sending prices higher+3.3%
• 2022/10/01Oil rises from 9-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar+16.5%

過去の強気な天候イベント24件の後、原油(ブレント) は5営業日で中央値 +2.8% 動き（67% が上昇。中央50%は -1.9% から +5.2%）、20営業日では +6.3% 動きました。

• 2020/08/23Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+2.2%
• 2020/09/15Oil jumps nearly 3% as Gulf Coast storm forces output cuts+4.6%
• 2026/01/16Oil prices rise as supply risk remain in focus-0.3%
• 2022/10/01Oil rises from 9-month low on U.S. Gulf supply cuts, softer dollar+11.3%
• 2025/02/19Arctic blast sends natural gas to highest since 2022, and oil ticks up on supply worries - MarketWatch-4.1%

過去の強気な天候イベント39件の後、ULSD / ディーゼル は5営業日で中央値 +2.4% 動き（59% が上昇。中央50%は -4.5% から +6.1%）、20営業日では +8.9% 動きました。

• 2026/01/26ULSD Rises Amid Winter Storm, Oil Slips on Output Returns+9.4%
• 2020/08/23Oil Gains as U.S. Gulf Output and Refineries Halted Before Storm - Bloomberg+0.4%
• 2022/12/23Storm cuts U.S. oil, gas, power output, sending prices higher+6.4%
• 2026/01/27Marine Gasoil on East Coast Surges as Frigid Weather Pressures Diesel Market Higher - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company-4.8%
• 2026/01/27Transatlantic Diesel Spread Surges as Winter Storm Disrupts US - Bloomberg-4.8%