Oil needs an Iran supply shock, not tough talk, to break out of range

Oil prices have stayed in a narrow band despite a roughly 15% gain in January, with Brent above $70 a barrel, its highest since last July. Fears of a possible fresh U.S. strike on Iran have been a key support, while rising output from other producers, including key OPEC members, has capped gains.

Tehran has vowed to retaliate against any U.S. strike, including by hitting neighbouring states.