War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply

過去の天候イベント37件の後、尿素 は5営業日で中央値 +1.4% 動き（73% が上昇。中央50%は -0.1% から +1.6%）、20営業日では +5.6% 動きました。

• 2026/05/31Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• 2021/09/03US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida+8.6%
• 2021/02/19US Gulf urea values recover as gas diversions and production cutbacks bring producers to the market; activity elsewhere limited+1.5%
• 2026/01/21Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%
• 2025/02/23US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño – Chemicals and the Economy-0.3%

過去の強気な天候イベント322件の後、小麦(HRW) は5営業日で中央値 -0.1% 動き（49% が上昇。中央50%は -2.5% から +3.2%）、20営業日では +1.0% 動きました。

• 2018/05/29Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-7.5%
• 2026/05/31Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-4.5%
• 2019/05/15The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+8.5%
• 2025/01/29Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining+6.0%
• 2026/09/21Wheat prices near multi-year highs as war, weather, and harvest shortfalls converge By Investing.com-4.1%

過去の強気な天候イベント1,072件の後、小麦(SRW) は5営業日で中央値 +0.2% 動き（55% が上昇。中央50%は -1.4% から +2.3%）、20営業日では +0.3% 動きました。

• 2018/05/29Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-0.9%
• 2026/05/31Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-2.6%
• 2019/05/15The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+11.2%
• 2021/05/13A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• 2025/05/09Tight Wheat Supply Leaves Prices at Mercy of Any Weather Shocks - Bloomberg-0.1%