Crude's slide and a softer dollar cap feed costs, but soybean meal and corn edged up today; WASDE on Nov 10 is the next test

Feed ingredients were mostly firm on the day (corn +0.4%, soybeans +1.0%, SBM +0.5%) even as crude fell sharply after the US midterm results and hopes of an end to the Iran conflict. Least-cost template formulas are 3-6% cheaper over four weeks, so the trend is helpful for buyers. Policy headlines on China purchases and Black Sea shipping are the main swing factors before WASDE.

Grains

Corn is at $210.03/mt, +0.4% on the day and in the lower quarter of its 52-week range (25%). SRW wheat is at 81% of its range and +14.8% on the year. EU cereal output for 2026/27 is estimated at 262 million tonnes, down 9.6% (81558), and Russian sea grain exports in October were 2.3 million tonnes versus 7 million a year earlier (81540). Black Sea basis has softened (81557) and a US-studied proposal on Black Sea transport is being discussed (81541). US corn export commitments are 28% of USDA's target versus a 40% five-year average, with net sales slightly below the weekly pace needed.

Protein meals and oils

Soybean meal is $393.43/mt (+0.5%), mid-range at 54%. Soybean oil is -0.4% and palm oil -1.0%; a Malaysian producer is calling for an export duty waiver to clear a palm supply glut (81544). CBOT soybeans were reported at an 11-week low as crude fell (81565), though our benchmark rose today. China says it will buy more US farm products only after reciprocal tariff cuts are in effect (81543, 81542). Canola meal (99% of range), fishmeal (93%) and DDGS (100%, monthly data as of Sept) are all near 52-week highs, so alternatives to soybean meal are not cheap.

Livestock

Lean hogs are at $62.17/cwt, at the bottom of their 52-week range, and China's hog futures are down over 20% in three months with sow herd shrinking (81564, 81555). Feeder cattle are down 7.5% over five days; research models continued limits on Mexican feeder imports (81556). Class III milk is volatile, up sharply in recent sessions on CME dairy moves. A bird flu outbreak was confirmed at a UK duck farm (81545).

Energy and macro

Brent was reported down about 8% in the prior session on hopes for a US-Iran deal after the midterms (81521, 81500), and the dollar index weakened to a multi-week low in market reports (81549, 81548). Our benchmarks still show Brent at $101.32 and WTI at $95.60, up 0.8% and 0.2% on the day, so quotes differ by source; check against your own screens. Diesel remains up 84% on the year at $4.53/gal, which keeps freight and handling costs high.

Feed cost

All template formulas are lower this week, led by Broiler withdrawal (-0.7% to $304.2/t), Sow lactation (-0.7%), Tilapia grow-out (-0.7%) and several others at -0.6%. Over four weeks, Pullet starter fell most (-6.1%) and Broiler starter -5.8%. For the broiler grower, soybean meal (-$0.89/t) and corn (-$0.42/t) drove the weekly drop, with soybean oil minor (-$0.03). These are least-cost template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

Positioning and reports

Managed money is net long 193,781 soybeans (94th percentile) and 168,714 soybean meal (99th percentile), so meal is exposed to liquidation if demand news disappoints, while corn length was cut by 83,310 contracts last week. SRW wheat funds are net short. Soybean export commitments are 62% of USDA's target versus 51% typical, while soybean meal and all-wheat commitments trail the five-year average. WASDE is on Nov 10.

Number of the day: 99th percentile

Managed money net long in soybean meal (168,714 contracts). Record-high fund length makes meal vulnerable to a sharp pullback if WASDE or China news disappoints, which could favour waiting on uncovered meal needs, though a hedged approach is prudent.

What to watch

• 2026-11-05: USDA Export Sales and Drought Monitor at 08:30 ET
• 2026-11-06: CFTC Commitments of Traders at 15:30 ET: do funds keep trimming soybean meal and corn length?
• 2026-11-09: USDA Crop Progress and Condition
• 2026-11-10: WASDE at 12:00 ET