
MUFG expects the Brazilian real to keep appreciating near term after it rose from 5.2212 to 5.0131 per dollar in June, with USD/BRL forecast to end 2021 at 5.10. Brazil's Central Bank has raised the Selic rate by 225 bps this year and is expected to lift it further to a neutral 6.50%.
A forecast stronger real and higher domestic rates make Brazilian export sellers less eager to sell dollar-priced commodities, which can tighten export supply and support prices.
Setelah 213 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (46% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +0,9%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.