
Russia rejoined the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative after pausing its participation when its Black Sea Fleet was attacked near Sevastopol. The deal, signed in July for 120 days, is up for renewal on November 19, and Russia has said its extension is in jeopardy.
Uncertainty over renewal of the grain deal keeps risk premium in wheat and corn, since Ukrainian and Russian grain exports depend on it.
Setelah 361 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,7% selama 5 sesi (58% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +3,7%), dan +1,3% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 323 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
The Nov 19 renewal is in jeopardy because Russia has threatened not to extend, which adds uncertainty about Black Sea supply and supports a risk premium in wheat.