◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

15 Jul 2026GEOPOLITIKLaut Hitam

CBOT wheat jumps 5% as Russia-Ukraine hostilities hit trade routes

CBOT wheat settled up 5% on July 15 as Russia and Ukraine escalated attacks over the Black Sea and trade routes. Ukraine has lost about a third of its Black Sea export capacity, and Russia restricted Sea of Azov shipping that handles about a quarter of its grain exports.

France cut its 2026 soft wheat forecast 4% to 32.0 million tons after heat waves.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

Losses in Ukrainian and Russian export capacity plus a smaller French crop tighten global wheat supply, supporting prices. Large fund short positions add upside volatility through short covering.

BERDAMPAK PADAGandum (SRW)▲Gandum (HRW)▲Jagung▲

1 SUMBER
sahmcapital.com15 Jul 2026

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Gandum (SRW)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,2%5d +4,5%20d +0,7%

Setelah 361 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,7% selama 5 sesi (58% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +3,7%), dan +1,3% selama 20 sesi.

24 Feb 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6,8%
22 Nov 2023Wheat prices jump as Russia targets Ukrainian grain supplies-0,4%
24 Feb 2022Dollar jumps to near two-year high as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6,8%
10 Feb 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns-2,5%
23 Sep 2026Wheat buyers brace for higher costs as Russia-Ukraine war drags on | Reuters-2,7%

Gandum (HRW)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +8,4%5d +10,4%20d +5,3%

Setelah 94 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (HRW) bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (50% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,7% sampai +5,8%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.

10 Feb 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns+2,2%
23 Sep 2026Wheat buyers brace for higher costs as Russia-Ukraine war drags on | Reuters-3,7%
19 Jul 2023Wheat Futures Rise 9% as Russia Threatens Ships Headed to Ukraine - Bloomberg+10,3%
16 Jul 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+6,0%
3 Mar 2022Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights wheat supply vulnerability+3,1%

Jagung▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,9%5d +3,2%20d -0,3%

Setelah 323 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.

24 Feb 2022Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6,5%
10 Feb 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns-0,6%
19 Jul 2023Wheat Futures Rise 9% as Russia Threatens Ships Headed to Ukraine - Bloomberg+13,6%
25 Feb 2022Farming News - Ag commodities trading sharply higher as Russia attacks Ukraine - ADM Wheat & OSR Market Update+6,6%
16 Jul 2026Russia and Ukraine strike vessels in Black Sea, wheat prices jump+3,1%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Pergerakan harga terkait

Gandum (HRW)+12,1%5 periode sampai 14 Jul 20263,8σ
CBOT wheat settled up 5% on July 15 as Black Sea attacks hit trade routes, a trade-flow shock that falls inside the 5-day window ending July 14 only in part, so it is a strong contributor to the continued rally.
Gandum (HRW)+8,4%1 periode sampai 14 Jul 20265,1σ
CBOT wheat settled up 5% on July 15 as attacks hit trade routes. The move is the same large rally, though its date is one day after the 2026-07-14 window, so the timing match is imperfect.

Gandum (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Gandum (HRW) KWHEAT · GP ▸

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