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2 Mar 2020MAKROAS

US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar

ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15.

They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.

BERDAMPAK PADADolar AS (Luas)▼Euro (USD per EUR)▲Minyak Mentah (WTI)▼

1 SUMBER
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris Turner2 Mar 2020

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Dolar AS (Luas)▼bearishSEJAUH INI1d -0,7%5d -0,8%20d +4,0%

Setelah 1.637 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (39% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,6% sampai +0,3%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.

3 Mar 2020Fed and the FX markets: Tainted carry | articles | ING THINK+0,3%
26 Jun 2018For the US dollar, the only way is not up | articles | ING THINK+0,8%
20 Sep 2024US Fed rate cuts: What does this mean for gold, equities, and emerging markets? | Julius Baer-0,2%
28 Apr 2021FX Daily: The patient Fed and the “nervous” dollar | articles | ING THINK+0,3%
29 Jul 2020US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors? - Invest Blue+0,4%

Euro (USD per EUR)▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,5%5d +2,9%20d +0,5%

Setelah 388 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Euro (USD per EUR) bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (62% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,4% sampai +1,1%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.

28 Jul 2020Rates Spark: The weaker USD, the Fed and cross currency | articles | ING THINK0,0%
16 Apr 2025G10 FX Talking: The medium-term dollar bear trend develops | articles | ING THINK+1,6%
29 Mei 2026Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed-0,2%
4 Mar 2021FX: Dollar bounce underwhelms | articles | ING THINK-1,4%
11 Mar 2021EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EUR | articles | ING THINK+0,0%

Minyak Mentah (WTI)▼bearishSEJAUH INI1d +4,4%5d -8,1%20d -61,4%

Setelah 565 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (WTI) bergerak median -1,4% selama 5 sesi (41% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -5,9% sampai +3,0%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.

8 Sep 2022The Commodities Feed: USD strength and demand worries | articles | ING THINK+7,8%
1 Feb 2024The Commodities Feed: Fed comments weigh on the complex | articles | ING THINK-2,6%
15 Jul 2022What the dollar's surge means for the economy+0,6%
27 Agu 2021The Commodities Feed: USD holds the market back | snaps | ING THINK+3,9%
19 Jul 2018Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM+2,5%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Pergerakan harga terkait

Euro (USD per EUR)+1,5%1 periode sampai 2 Mar 20205,4σ
On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD.
Euro (USD per EUR)+2,9%5 periode sampai 6 Mar 20204,4σ
Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver.
Dolar AS (Luas)-0,7%1 periode sampai 2 Mar 2020-4,4σ
Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move.

Dolar AS (Luas) DXY · GP ▸

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Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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