ING analysts said oil prices dropped sharply as a US-Iran two-week ceasefire eased supply disruption fears. Bloomberg survey data showed OPEC output fell about 7.6 mb/d in March to 22.1 mb/d, while API data showed a 3.7 mb build in US crude stocks.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz could restore some lost output, though full normalization will be gradual. Bearish crude inventory data and expected supply recovery point to lower energy costs for feed producers in the near term.
Setelah 250 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (Brent) bergerak median -3,1% selama 5 sesi (36% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -7,9% sampai +1,6%), dan -5,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 255 peristiwa geopolitik bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (WTI) bergerak median -2,4% selama 5 sesi (31% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -7,0% sampai +1,7%), dan -5,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Analyst commentary attributes the slump to eased supply-disruption fears, with a US crude stock build adding minor bearish pressure.
ING notes the ceasefire eased supply fears while a US crude stock build added bearish pressure.