
BMI expects global rice prices to stay elevated through 2024 because of unfavourable weather and India's export restrictions. It projects Chicago rough rice futures to average US$16.50/cwt in 2024, versus US$16.69 in 2023, with the contracts at US$16.32 as of April 5.
BMI expects India's restrictions to persist at least until after the Indian general election.
India's export curbs remove a major supplier from the market, keeping international rice quotations firm and supporting feed-grade rice and rice-byproduct costs. Easing is only expected in 2025 if La Niña brings higher rainfall.
Setelah 189 peristiwa perdagangan bullish sebelumnya, Gabah bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (52% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,7% sampai +2,4%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
BMI's view that tight global supply, weather and India's export restrictions will keep prices elevated, with Chicago rough rice futures near $16.32, supports a sentiment-driven rally.
BMI's view that tight global supply and India's export restrictions will keep rice prices elevated, with rough rice futures near $16.32, supports bullish sentiment that could fuel a sharp upward move.