◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

27 Sep 2019CUACAGlobal

ENSO NEUTRAL POSITIVE CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE DECEMBER-FEBRUARY OUTLOOK

A late-September outlook note says Niño 3.4 temperatures have stayed near La Niña-like levels, with ENSO-neutral positive conditions expected for December to February. It flags a trend toward a favorable season for central-west Brazil and a warmer Black Sea region, and a possible cold winter in North America.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

Favorable rain in central-west Brazil would support the coming soybean and corn planting, which can ease export supply concerns. A cold North American winter would add to demand for feed energy, but the signal is still early and uncertain.

BERDAMPAK PADAJagung Kedelai Gandum (SRW)Minyak Sawit

1 SUMBER
linkedin.com27 Sep 2019

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Jagungtidak ada pembacaan arahSEJAUH INI1d -0,2%5d -0,5%20d +0,9%

Setelah 2.467 peristiwa cuaca sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (51% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +1,7%), dan +0,6% selama 20 sesi.

Kedelaitidak ada pembacaan arahSEJAUH INI1d -0,6%5d +2,6%20d +5,0%

Setelah 1.964 peristiwa cuaca sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (51% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,7% sampai +1,8%), dan +0,3% selama 20 sesi.

10 Jul 2025Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October+0,1%
1 Feb 2025La Niña conditions present with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance) | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast+0,7%
12 Jun 2025US CPC sees 82% chance of ENSO neutral conditions through June-August — TradingView News+2,3%
10 Jun 2021ENSO Neutral Conditions: June 2021 NOAA Update-7,3%
13 Feb 2020U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather conditions during spring+0,0%

Gandum (SRW)tidak ada pembacaan arahSEJAUH INI1d +0,1%5d +0,6%20d -1,3%

Setelah 1.773 peristiwa cuaca sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (52% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,1%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.

10 Jul 2025Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October-1,8%
9 Mei 2019ENSO WILL TOE THE LINE BETWEEN EL NIÑO AND NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JUNE-AUGUST-1,5%
1 Feb 2025La Niña conditions present with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance) | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast+0,3%
13 Mar 2025U.S. forecaster sees neutral weather conditions persisting through summer+5,7%
31 Jul 2026Australia’s winter crop outlook takes more positive turn – News Hub-1,7%

Minyak Sawittidak ada pembacaan arahSEJAUH INI1d -0,1%5d -2,8%20d +2,3%

Setelah 361 peristiwa cuaca sebelumnya, Minyak Sawit bergerak median +0,0% selama 5 sesi (51% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,3% sampai +1,3%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Jagung CORN · GP ▸

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Kedelai SOY · GP ▸

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