◂ Linimasa Peristiwa

12 Sep 2024CUACAAmerika Selatan

La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster

Reuters reports that the US forecaster NOAA puts the chance of La Niña forming in September-November 2024 at 71%. Capital Economics and AccuWeather warn that agricultural regions of Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil are most at risk of dryness if the event develops.

MENGAPA INI PENTING

Dry weather over the South American summer crop belt would threaten soybean and corn output, which supports meal and grain prices. The risk depends on whether the typical La Niña pattern actually materializes.

BERDAMPAK PADAKedelai▲Jagung▲Bungkil Kedelai▲

1 SUMBER
reuters.com12 Sep 2024

Reaksi harga & riwayat

Kedelai▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +1,2%5d +3,5%20d +4,1%

Setelah 1.079 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (54% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +2,0%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.

9 Okt 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters-2,2%
10 Okt 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-3,9%
9 Mei 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+0,1%
14 Mei 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-1,3%
8 Feb 2024El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024-1,6%

Jagung▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +0,9%5d +4,9%20d +5,1%

Setelah 1.465 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (54% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,4% sampai +1,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.

9 Okt 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters-0,9%
10 Okt 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-2,6%
9 Mei 2024El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster | Reuters+2,7%
14 Mei 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-0,4%
10 Sep 2018New El Niño weather event likely this winter says WMO-3,5%

Bungkil Kedelai▲bullishSEJAUH INI1d +0,8%5d +1,3%20d +2,4%

Setelah 453 peristiwa cuaca bullish sebelumnya, Bungkil Kedelai bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (55% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,6% sampai +2,7%), dan +0,5% selama 20 sesi.

9 Okt 2025US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 | Reuters+1,3%
8 Feb 2024El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024-1,9%
21 Mar 2024Argentina downpour 'damaging' for soy and corn, weather analysts say | Reuters-1,4%
18 Nov 2021A Return to Normal La Nina Pattern Unfavorable for Argentina, Southern Brazil-4,3%
4 Des 2024La Nina could thwart Argentina's run at bumper crops | Reuters+0,7%

Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.

Kedelai SOY · GP ▸

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Jagung CORN · GP ▸

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