
Urea futures rose to as high as $684 per tonne, the highest since October 2022, and are more than 70% higher this year. The rally reflects Middle East war disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows, a gas price spike, plant shutdowns in India and Bangladesh, and tighter export restrictions from China and Russia.
Combined supply restrictions and pre-planting demand are pushing fertilizer costs sharply higher, which raises production costs for feed grain and oilseed growers and supports corn prices over the spring season.
Setelah 205 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Urea bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (53% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,1% sampai +3,0%), dan -0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 323 peristiwa geopolitik bullish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,5% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,5% sampai +2,9%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Urea futures hit the highest level since Oct 2022 on Hormuz disruption, gas spike, Asian plant shutdowns and Chinese/Russian export curbs, which is the supply-shock backdrop for the sharp one-day jump, though it predates 3/31 by a week.