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Black Sea grain trade is shifting as a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal develops. Russia's share of global wheat exports rose to 28% in 2023-24, while Ukraine's has fallen and its exports have not returned to pre-war levels.
USDA projects higher Black Sea sunflower oil output in 2024-25, and a trade source says the market has largely stopped reacting to attacks on ports and ships.
Markets have become used to Black Sea disruptions, so short-term ceasefire news is unlikely to move prices much. Russia's larger export share keeps it the main factor in global wheat supply.
spglobal.com19 Mar 2025Setelah 206 peristiwa perdagangan netral sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,1% selama 5 sesi (53% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,3% sampai +1,6%), dan +0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 81 peristiwa perdagangan netral sebelumnya, Minyak Kedelai bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (56% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,6% sampai +1,8%), dan +0,9% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
