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Kpler analysts say Russia's July 8 diesel export ban, scheduled to run until July 31, will not cause a large balance shift because volumes were already curtailed. The ban arrives as the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed and Strait of Hormuz tensions have re-escalated.
Brazil is expected to draw more diesel from the US, as it did during the 2023 ban.
Expected substitution by Brazil toward US Gulf Coast diesel would tighten US supply and support prices there. Renewed Hormuz disruption adds upward pressure on crude and refined product costs.
kpler.comDavid Tonyan9 Jul 2026Setelah 90 peristiwa kebijakan bullish sebelumnya, ULSD / Solar bergerak median +1,4% selama 5 sesi (66% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,9% sampai +4,1%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 442 peristiwa kebijakan bullish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (Brent) bergerak median +1,4% selama 5 sesi (60% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,0% sampai +4,9%), dan +2,1% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
