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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,222 mil bu vs prior 1,342 (+65.6%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 335 mil bu vs prior 210 (+59.5%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.8 $/bu vs prior 6.6 (-27.3%, bearish); US soybean meal price 365 $/st vs prior 465 (-21.5%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 122.5 mmt vs prior 100.29 (+22.1%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 12.1 $/bu vs prior 14.3 (-15.4%, bearish); US corn exports 2,100 mil bu vs prior 1,850 (+13.5%, bullish); US soybean oil price 58 ¢/lb vs prior 64 (-9.4%, bearish); US…
USDA WAOBSetelah 3.207 peristiwa laporan sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (54% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,3% sampai +1,7%), dan +0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 2.389 peristiwa laporan sebelumnya, Kedelai bergerak median 0,0% selama 5 sesi (50% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,6% sampai +1,9%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 1.283 peristiwa laporan sebelumnya, Bungkil Kedelai bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (47% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,0% sampai +1,7%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 686 peristiwa laporan sebelumnya, Minyak Kedelai bergerak median -0,0% selama 5 sesi (49% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,8% sampai +2,0%), dan -0,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
May 12 WASDE showed a huge bearish surprise, with 2023/24 US corn ending stocks up 65% from the prior figure and a much lower season-average price, which likely triggered the sharp one-day selloff.
May 12 WASDE showed a large bearish surprise in 2023/24 US corn ending stocks (2,222 vs 1,342 mil bu) and a sharply lower season-average price, triggering the selloff.
The May 12 WASDE (first 2023/24 balance sheets) was bearish across the complex, with higher soybean and corn ending stocks and a sharply lower projected soybean oil price (58 vs 64 c/lb), which plausibly triggered the heavy sell-off in soybean oil on the next trading day (May 15).
The May 12 WASDE raised US and world soybean stocks and cut the projected soybean oil price from 64 to 58 cents/lb, a bearish supply and price shock that points directly at the soyoil drop.
May 12 WASDE showed far larger than expected 2023/24 US soybean ending stocks (335 vs 210 mil bu) and lower price projections, a bearish supply shock that started the selloff.
The May 12 WASDE showed far larger projected 2023/24 US corn ending stocks and a lower farm price, a bearish supply shock that set the downward tone for the following two weeks.
