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Traders scaled back bets on a large European Central Bank rate hike this week as unease spread through markets. The euro fell 1.8% against the dollar, its biggest one-day drop since March 2020.
Financial stress shifts the macro backdrop for commodities by weakening the euro and dollar moves that feed into dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices, while expectations of tighter policy ease.
reuters.comYoruk Bahceli, Joice Alves15 Mar 2023Setelah 533 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Euro (USD per EUR) bergerak median -0,3% selama 5 sesi (33% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +0,2%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 2.356 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median +0,2% selama 5 sesi (60% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,3% sampai +0,7%), dan +0,4% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Reuters reports the euro fell 1.8% on the day as ECB hike bets were scaled back on bank turmoil, directly describing the move and its rate-expectation driver.
