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US CPI fell to 3.0% year on year in June, below the 3.1% forecast, and core CPI fell to 4.8% against 5.0% expected. Treasury yields dropped sharply and the dollar weakened.
A downside CPI surprise lowers the likelihood of further Fed hikes, pushing yields and the dollar lower. A weaker dollar tends to support dollar-priced grain and oilseed prices.
fxexplained.co.ukRichard PerryJul 13, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the downside CPI surprise (core 4.8% vs 5.0%) that sent Treasury yields and the dollar lower, the same catalyst, though dated a day after the move.
