Same Sea, Different Rules: Russia Expands Grain Exports While Ukraine Faces Costly Alternatives

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2026Russia seeks alternative grain routes as Black Sea exports plunge, Ukrainian intelligence says-0.8%
• Aug 4, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine turns to alternative grain export routes, counts losses as Russia blocks ports | Reuters+0.1%
• Aug 8, 2023After attacking Ukraine wheat exports, Russia faces own shipping challenge | Reuters-1.2%
• Dec 26, 2025Ports Under Fire as Russia’s Drone and Missile Strikes Squeeze Ukraine’s Grain Exports – Ship Universe-0.5%
• Apr 28, 2020Ukraine's Apr 18-24 sea port grain exports down 36% wk/wk — Latifundist.com+2.8%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Aug 4, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine turns to alternative grain export routes, counts losses as Russia blocks ports | Reuters-0.5%
• Dec 26, 2025Ports Under Fire as Russia’s Drone and Missile Strikes Squeeze Ukraine’s Grain Exports – Ship Universe-1.8%
• Apr 28, 2020Ukraine's Apr 18-24 sea port grain exports down 36% wk/wk — Latifundist.com+1.5%
• Mar 17, 2026Russian Strikes Create ‘Extreme Uncertainty’ for Ukraine’s Grain Exporters, Doubling Logistics Costs+1.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-1.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.