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SovEcon now expects Black Sea maritime traffic to stay disrupted until spring 2027, after inconclusive Ukraine, US and Russia talks in Abu Dhabi. It cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.7 mln tons to 36 mln tons.
Russian Black Sea grain shipments are running at only about 100-200 thsd tons per month, with flows shifting to Baltic ports.
Lower Russian export availability tightens global wheat supply and supports prices, while congestion on Baltic and rail routes adds freight cost and delay risk for buyers.
ukragroconsult.comNov 13, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
