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Russian officials report grain exports up 15% in value and 18% in volume since the start of the year, even as about 80% of shipments have been rerouted from Azov-Black Sea ports to Baltic and Caspian routes. The Grain Union says domestic wheat cost about $100/t in October while Baltic export prices were $260-270/t, and current prices are roughly half of last year's.
The government is adding 13 billion rubles for autumn fieldwork, 10 billion rubles for rail subsidies, and planned grain purchases of up to 3 million tonnes, though farmers asked for three to five times that.
The roughly $160/t gap between domestic and export prices reflects longer, costlier logistics, which pressures farmgate wheat and weakens the outlook for winter sowing and 2027 supply. Feed buyers should watch Russian wheat as a cheaper feed grain alternative when logistics normalize.
paragro.ruNov 12, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
