Russia allowed grain carriers to leave the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait temporarily until November 15, after a ban on shipping through the Azov-Don canal from July 10. Russian Grain Union president Arkady Zlochevsky described the permit as a test run before full reopening, and reports suggest the Azov port may reopen to grain and oilseed exports.
A full reopening would add Russian grain and oilseed supply to export markets that have been short of tonnage, which is bearish for wheat and oilseed prices. Continued restrictions keep Russian supply stuck and support prices.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.