NDSU Extension's Tim Petry reviews U.S. turkey production, which fell to 4.8 billion pounds in 2025 from a 2020-2024 average of 5.42 billion due to HPAI. USDA projects a rebound to 5.13 billion pounds in 2026, but HPAI has reappeared in commercial turkey flocks in Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota and South Dakota this fall.
Turkey prices were $1.80 per pound, versus $1.68 a year earlier.
Lower turkey output and renewed HPAI detections in key states keep turkey supply tight into the holiday season, supporting poultry prices and the value of poultry-based feed ingredients.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.