
Rice export quotations rose month-on-month across all major origins in November, with US rice up $41/t to $680/t and Thai rice up $31/t to $497/t. USDA projects lower 2026-27 global rice trade, with India's exports cut by 1 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes and Thailand's by 0.2 million tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes.
Smaller expected Indian and Thai exports and lower Bangladeshi and Senegalese imports tighten the global rice balance and support export prices. Traders should expect firmer quotes unless supply recovers.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.