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Brazil's central bank sharply escalated currency intervention on 21 May, offering an additional 15,000 currency swap contracts worth about US$2 billion. The real closed at R$3.668 on the commercial rate after the dollar had risen 5.5% over six sessions on expectations of more US rate hikes.
Analysts said the market was respecting the intervention but that it was unlikely to reverse the dollar's longer-term trend.
Central bank support limits near-term real weakness, which slightly supports Brazilian export prices in dollar terms and reduces the pressure on world feed prices from currency-driven selling. Buyers should still expect volatility while the dollar strengthens.
www1.folha.uol.com.brMay 22, 2018After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The central bank's escalated swap intervention of about US$2 billion on 21 May pushed the dollar back below R$3.70, which directly explains the sharp one-day drop in BRL per USD ending 22 May.
