
Russian farmers are storing grain in large plastic silo bags as traditional silos fall short, with up to one-third of the country's grain exports potentially stored this way. Russian grain exports have fallen about a third of normal volume since early July due to attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels.
IKAR estimates up to 20 million tonnes of excess unexported grain will need storage until a deal restores exports.
Stranded Russian grain builds domestic stocks that are held back from world markets, a bearish factor for wheat and corn prices in importing regions, though storage risks and an eventual release could add future supply.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.