
OPEC+ crude output rose by 2.04 million barrels per day in October to 41.23 million, led by a sharp recovery in Saudi Arabia. Brent was trading in the low US$90s on November 12, with WTI in the mid-US$80s.
A faster supply recovery eases the tightness in the global crude balance and puts downward pressure on prices. Strait of Hormuz risks still limit how far prices can fall.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.