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Short bets against the Chinese yuan, Taiwan dollar and Thai baht were lower than two weeks earlier, according to a Reuters poll of 11 respondents. Many investors had expected tariffs among the executive orders Trump signed in his first days in office.
Reduced bearish positioning in Asian currencies reflects a less aggressive tariff start than feared, modestly easing pressure on US agricultural export expectations.
reuters.comAdwitiya SrivastavaJan 23, 2025After 50 past bearish policy events, USDCNY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's less aggressive start on tariffs led to fewer short bets on the yuan, which supports yuan strength, though the poll came out after the move.
Smaller short bets on the yuan after a milder start to Trump's tariff plans reduced depreciation pressure and supported yuan strength.
