USDA's November report kept its 2026/27 Ukrainian sunflower oil export forecast at 5 million tonnes and cut Russia's to 4.85 million tonnes. Lower Russian seed and oil output could let Ukraine retake the top exporter position it lost in 2025/26.
Ukraine's 2025/26 exports totaled 4.036 million tonnes against Russia's 4.2 million.
Shifting export leadership changes which Black Sea origin supplies sunflower oil to importers, with Russia's tighter supply modestly supporting global vegetable oil prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.