On November 12, Canadian rapeseed for January 2027 delivery was quoted at $625/t CNF China, which Mysteel converts to a duty-paid landed cost of 5,293 yuan/t at an exchange rate of 6.6338. Zhengzhou January 2027 meal and oil were 2,238 yuan/t and 9,642 yuan/t, giving a futures crush margin of -167 yuan/t, while the spot crush margin was 62 yuan/t.
The notes cite a 14.9% tariff and a 5.9% anti-dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed imposed for five years.
A negative futures crush margin at a high landed cost discourages crushing of imported Canadian seed, which weighs on meal supply. The duties keep Canadian origin expensive relative to other sources.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.