
The New World screwworm spread north from Panama's Darien Gap in 2023 and has infected thousands of animals and people across Mexico and Central America. The United States has no domestic facility capable of producing the sterile flies needed to halt its spread, and current production covers only a fraction of the need.
Federal officials admit the outbreak could have been contained sooner.
Without enough sterile flies, the risk of an incursion into US cattle herds stays elevated, which could cut supply in an already tight market and support live cattle prices. Mexican cattle movements and import controls are also affected.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.