
USDA estimates 2026 US turkey production at about 198.5 million birds, up 3% from 2025 and the first annual increase since 2023. Federally inspected turkey meat output is projected at about 5.13 billion pounds, up 6%, though still below 2023 levels.
Cold storage stocks have fallen, and exports are projected to rise nearly 10%, led by Mexico.
Rebuilding flock numbers add supply, but tight cold-storage stocks, rising exports and higher wholesale prices suggest the market remains firm. Feed costs and disease risk still threaten grower margins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.