
Russia's seaborne grain exports fell to 2.3 million tonnes in October 2026, roughly one-third of the 7 million tonnes shipped a year earlier, according to the Russian Grain Union. Black Sea and Azov shipments nearly collapsed, while Baltic ports rose to about 1.56 million tonnes.
A steep drop in Russian seaborne grain flows tightens wheat supply to importers such as Egypt and Iran, supporting global wheat prices. Rerouting through the Baltic has not offset the Black Sea loss.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.