Mosaic shares have risen about a third from a late-October low near $17 on expectations of a phosphate price recovery and production cuts. Freedom Broker downgraded the stock to Sell, warning that sulfur-cost pressure from the Middle East supply disruption will keep weighing on earnings through 2026.
Mosaic's third-quarter sulfur cost rose to $715 a long ton from $522 a year earlier, producing a phosphate gross margin loss.
Sulfur feeds sulfuric acid used to make phosphate fertilizers such as DAP and MAP, so higher sulfur costs squeeze phosphate supply margins and can keep phosphate prices firm, which matters for feed phosphate and crop nutrient costs.
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