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The Fertilizer Institute estimates Belarus could add 1 to 1.5 million metric tons of potash a year to U.S. supply, about 8% to 12% of 2025 U.S. imports of 12.6 million tons. Canada supplies 85% to 90% of U.S. potash and would remain the main source.
Belarusian potash already has buyers, mostly China, and shipments to the U.S. would need an ocean voyage and an inland barge trip.
Limited extra supply is unlikely to shift U.S. potash prices much, since logistics and existing buyer commitments constrain volumes. The effect on feed-ingredient costs is minimal.
fertilizerdaily.comTimothy BuenoNov 11, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
