Global Grain Trade Is Shifting: Can U.S. Exporters Gain Ground as Black Sea Shipments Decline?

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters+2.4%
• Jun 28, 2022War in Ukraine raises global shipping costs, stifles trade | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)-7.7%
• Apr 10, 2022Grains shipments from Black Sea ports slowly gain traction: sources - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org-2.4%
• Sep 27, 2023Ukraine Black Sea corridor still too risky for most shippers, industry says | Global Trade Review (GTR)-5.3%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-0.7%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jun 28, 2022War in Ukraine raises global shipping costs, stifles trade | UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)+4.0%
• Apr 24, 2023Argentine transporters strike, threatening grains shipments | Financial Post-0.7%
• Apr 10, 2022Grains shipments from Black Sea ports slowly gain traction: sources - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+2.0%
• Sep 27, 2023Ukraine Black Sea corridor still too risky for most shippers, industry says | Global Trade Review (GTR)+1.8%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-1.2%