
Ukrainian barley exports are at critically low levels, with just over 13,000 tonnes shipped in the first nine days of November against monthly needs of 300,000-350,000 tonnes. Winter barley area is expected to fall below the 2022 record low, and carry-over stocks could reach 2-3 million tonnes.
Export backlogs and a shrinking barley area point to large carry-over stocks, which would press Black Sea feed barley prices lower into next season. Reduced plantings could eventually tighten supply, but near-term pressure is bearish.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.