
Rice futures eased to about $17.20 per hundredweight as traders took profits, but remained near their highest level since June 2024. El Niño-related risks in Asian rice-growing regions, including a weak Indian monsoon and potential heat, drought and flooding impacts in Thailand, have raised supply concerns; India’s large inventories may cushion its expected production decline.
Weather-related production risks could tighten rice supply and support prices, although India’s accumulated stocks may limit the impact. Recent profit-taking has eased prices but has not removed the underlying supply concern.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.