Brazil had planted 64% of its estimated 2026/27 soybean area by November 5, up from 53% the prior week and 61% at the same time last season. Irregular rainfall and drought risk in the Cerrado, particularly Mato Grosso, contrast with excess rain in the South; Imea projects Mato Grosso soybean production at 48.88 million tonnes, 5.2% below the previous season.
Weather stress could reduce Brazilian soybean yields, tightening expected supply and lending support to soybean prices. The planting pace is ahead of last year, but does not eliminate the production risk.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.