
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts Canadian oat production at 3.031 million tonnes in 2026–27, down from 3.920 million the previous season, citing reduced seeded area and lower yields. Total supply is projected to fall to 3.628 million tonnes from 4.441 million, with carry-out stocks declining to 400,000 tonnes from 577,000.
Lower Canadian oat availability and ending stocks could tighten sourcing options for oat-based feed and cereal ingredients, supporting oat prices.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.