
Ukraine shipped about 13,000 tonnes of barley in the first nine days of November, well below the 300,000–350,000 tonnes per month considered necessary to balance production. Barley stocks are nearly 6 million tonnes, with 2–3 million tonnes of carryover projected by the end of the marketing year; low prices are also discouraging winter sowing.
Slow exports leave a large surplus in Ukraine, limiting the scope for barley prices to rise and potentially weighing on regional feed-grain values. Reduced sowing may constrain later supply, but the immediate effect is bearish.
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