
Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic rate at 13.75% after five consecutive cuts and said worsening inflation expectations warrant keeping rates high for longer, without specifying when cuts might resume. The minutes and US inflation data contributed to a 1.48% rise in the dollar to R$5.58, its highest level since July 2025.
A weaker real raises the cost of imported feed ingredients and farm inputs in Brazil, while potentially improving the price competitiveness of Brazilian exports. The currency move is supportive of Brazilian export prices, all else equal.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.