Worsening economic expectations explain dollar rise, expert says

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 28, 2018How a Rising U.S. Dollar Puts Argentina's and Brazil's Economies at Risk+1.8%
• Jan 1, 2018What a year of elections means for Latin America's economies | World Economic Forum-2.5%
• Aug 5, 2024Brazilian real depreciation stirs economic concerns-3.9%
• Aug 15, 2018Dollar Rises Against Emerging-Market Currencies - WSJ+2.8%
• Apr 28, 2022Global shares rise as earnings boost, U.S. dollar hits 20-year high-0.2%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 13, 2018Expect US dollar to continue rising against ringgit, say economists | FMT-0.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Dollar gains on Fed rate hike expectations-0.1%
• Nov 10, 2016Dollar rises as Trump victory raises inflation expectations+1.9%
• Nov 4, 2021Dollar rebounds, sterling slumps, as market resets rate expectations-0.2%
• Aug 26, 2026U.S. data buoys dollar as Fed hike expectations nudged higher+0.4%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2023Oil slumps on economic data, stronger U.S. dollar+2.9%
• Jun 1, 2025Oil falls as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment+4.9%
• Mar 22, 2020Ringgit opens lower against US dollar in early session | Malaysiakini-10.0%
• Sep 19, 2019Ringgit at 4.15 to US dollar at end of 2019, says MIDF Research | Malay Mail-2.4%
• Sep 18, 2026Ringgit opens higher against US dollar as oil prices ease | The Star-0.3%