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Texas A&M grain marketing economist Mark Welch says US corn prices have historically been more likely to reach $5 or higher when ending stocks fall below about 40 days of use. USDA estimates moved from roughly 35 days in September to about 41 days in October after September grain stocks exceeded expectations by around 200 million bushels and USDA raised its yield estimate by roughly two bushels per acre.
The latest balance-sheet estimates place US supplies just above the cited threshold, limiting the case for a sustained move above $5 unless stocks tighten. That supply cushion is bearish for corn price prospects and feed buyers may face less upward price pressure unless later data reduce stocks.
rfdtv.comTony St. JamesNov 10, 2026After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
