
Indian sugar mills' operating margins are expected to contract by 140–160 basis points to about 6% this fiscal, despite projected operating-income growth of 4–5%. For ethanol supply year 2027, production from sugar-based feedstocks has been restricted to C-heavy molasses; sugar output is forecast at about 29 million tonnes, down from 31.1 million a year earlier, partly due to weather concerns affecting cane yields.
Restricting sugar-based ethanol limits mills' ability to divert sugar into a higher-margin outlet, potentially increasing sugar available to the domestic market; the projected smaller crop and steady consumption nevertheless point to a tight balance. The policy change also curbs demand for sugarcane as an ethanol feedstock.
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