
Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office reviewed food-price inflation across three past El Niño periods, examining rice, meat, eggs, fresh vegetables, and fresh fruit. It found that price movements varied by product and event, and that some categories continued changing after El Niño ended.
El Niño-related shifts in rainfall and temperature can affect yields and harvest timing, but the study indicates impacts differ by commodity and period. It offers no firm current price direction for feed ingredients or livestock products.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 22 past weather events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.7% to +3.9%), and -3.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.